Bush or Bushehr?
Bush or Bushehr?
Russia puts its money on IranGulf atomic plant back on track
The Daily Star Lebanon Paul de Zardain
Beirut
MOSCOW: With a firm handshake from the Kremlin chief, Hassan Rohani concluded his visit to Moscow last Friday. As head of Iran's National Security Council, Rohani made no secret that his meetings were timed ahead of a U.S.-Russia summit in Bratislava this week.
A triangulation of interests has emerged in which Russia is keen on bolstering ties with the U.S., while signing defense contracts with Iran. Russian President Vladimir Putin met Rohani's delegation with a broad smile, a signal that work on the Bushehr atomic plant remains on track: "We will continue to cooperate with Iran at all levels, including nuclear energy," a resolute Putin told the Kremlin pool.
According to Izvestia, more than 1,500 Russian engineers are scheduled to bring Bushehr online by 2006. Putin restated his conviction that Tehran does not intend to develop nuclear weapons. Next to him at the bargaining table was Aleksandr Rumyantsev, head of Russia's Federal Agency for Atomic Energy. Rumyantsev is expected to sign a protocol in Tehran on Feb. 26 monitoring the return of spent fuels to Siberia. The precautionary measure has not quieted critics who argue that plutonium can easily be extracted from reprocessed fuels.
Last September, Iran announced it was resuming large-scale conversion of uranium ore. The debate is now about mastering the whole nuclear cycle, in violation of a 2003 agreement reached with Britain, France and Germany. Although the Islamic Republic holds 9 percent of the world's proven crude oil reserves (and 64.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas), nuclear power is seen as an alternate source of electricity generation. Exports of crude oil could then be freed up to pay off the country's $9.9 billion in external debt. Tehran argues that the Gulf reactor at Bushehr will help meet the needs of a population fast approaching 70 million. With median age at 22, the mullahs fear youths with few job prospects could lead a de-facto opposition.
For Moscow, the commercial incentives are strong. Putin is reluctant to alter his economic development plans on the basis of what he sees as unproven allegations. The Kremlin is concerned that Chinese oil companies are profiting from the diplomatic crisis by clinching deals in Iran. According to a January report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, China's Sinopec has secured 51 percent of Iran's Yadavaran oil-field project. And in September, another Chinese oil major took over operations at Masjid-e Suleiman. Meanwhile, the European offer to supply Tehran with nuclear fuels and civilian technology is a potential slap in the face for Putin.
Still, business daily Kommersant reminded its readers Saturday that Iran could be nuclear-enabled within six months. It said Kremlin officials had failed to mention that U.S. President George W. Bush is not ruling out pre-emptive attacks against Bushehr. A military showdown could put Russian trade policies at risk. In Moscow, a consensus among analysts holds that Bush's threats are not credible.
"Iran is not Iraq. There is no possible way the U.S. can carry out the same type of campaign it launched against Saddam Hussein in Iraq," says Gleb Pavlovksy, a Kremlin-connected political strategist. "Anyway, business and diplomacy don't necessarily cancel each other out," he says.
The war on terrorism can distract from other conflicts of interest between Russia and the United States. But when news hit trading floors last Wednesday that an explosion had taken place near Bushehr, oil prices moved up sharply. There is nothing like oil prices to correct market distractions. Izvestia revealed the next day that Russian specialists on the ground had not been harmed since the blast was detected 100 kilometers away from the reactor. But a source at Atomstroiexport, the Russian outfit in charge of Bushehr, said security measures had been heightened.
Moscow is not only investing in Iran's atomic market, but also in exports of military equipment. Much of it is weaponry designed in the 1970s. When Putin came to power in 1999, he committed to double-tracking the economy.
"The idea was that exports of oil and gas would help rebuild the high-tech sector. Preserving the legacy of the Soviet Union's space research, for example, was important to Putin's team," says Aleksei Bogaturov of Russia's Academy of Sciences.
Deemed of strategic national interest, the Kremlin co-financed the construction of long-range Ilyushin aircraft equipped with U.S.-built engines. But the short-term vision of Russian bureaucrats, coupled with nostalgia for a lost sphere of influence, is getting in the way.
Russia is struggling to find its strategic fit in the Middle East. One way is by opening new export markets. But to avoid upsetting the regional balance, it will have to tread lightly. This past week, Moscow had to qualify the sale of Strelets surface-to-air missile systems to Syria. A controversy erupted in January over the possible sale of rocket propellers. At the time, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov denied talks over "illicit" weapons. During his three-day visit to Russia, Syrian President Bashar Assad also denied arms deals. But just last week, Ivanov's office resorted to a rhetorical device to explain that it was going ahead with sales to Syria. The Strelets is for defensive purposes only, an official source claimed. It cannot be detached from armored vehicles and is therefore unlikely to land in terrorist hands.
Linguistic devices may not work after the assassination of Lebanese former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Any tracks leading to a Syrian role in the Beirut bombing will isolate Damascus.
"I assume this issue will be raised in Bratislava [on Feb. 24] to avoid additional irritants in the Bush-Putin partnership," says Andrei Kortunov, president of the New Eurasia Foundation in Moscow. Kortunov thinks Putin is responding to the pressure of arms exporters linked to the Defense Ministry.
"Putin will be as opportunistic as he is allowed to be. It all depends on U.S. persistence and whether Bush can convince the Europeans to hold the line," says Kortunov.
The delivery of anti-aircraft systems to Syria does not directly violate UN conventions. But if Putin is unable to calibrate his policies, he may have to alter his portfolio and forsake Iran.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=3&article_ID=12884© 2005 The Daily Star
Russia puts its money on IranGulf atomic plant back on track
The Daily Star Lebanon Paul de Zardain
Beirut
MOSCOW: With a firm handshake from the Kremlin chief, Hassan Rohani concluded his visit to Moscow last Friday. As head of Iran's National Security Council, Rohani made no secret that his meetings were timed ahead of a U.S.-Russia summit in Bratislava this week.
A triangulation of interests has emerged in which Russia is keen on bolstering ties with the U.S., while signing defense contracts with Iran. Russian President Vladimir Putin met Rohani's delegation with a broad smile, a signal that work on the Bushehr atomic plant remains on track: "We will continue to cooperate with Iran at all levels, including nuclear energy," a resolute Putin told the Kremlin pool.
According to Izvestia, more than 1,500 Russian engineers are scheduled to bring Bushehr online by 2006. Putin restated his conviction that Tehran does not intend to develop nuclear weapons. Next to him at the bargaining table was Aleksandr Rumyantsev, head of Russia's Federal Agency for Atomic Energy. Rumyantsev is expected to sign a protocol in Tehran on Feb. 26 monitoring the return of spent fuels to Siberia. The precautionary measure has not quieted critics who argue that plutonium can easily be extracted from reprocessed fuels.
Last September, Iran announced it was resuming large-scale conversion of uranium ore. The debate is now about mastering the whole nuclear cycle, in violation of a 2003 agreement reached with Britain, France and Germany. Although the Islamic Republic holds 9 percent of the world's proven crude oil reserves (and 64.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas), nuclear power is seen as an alternate source of electricity generation. Exports of crude oil could then be freed up to pay off the country's $9.9 billion in external debt. Tehran argues that the Gulf reactor at Bushehr will help meet the needs of a population fast approaching 70 million. With median age at 22, the mullahs fear youths with few job prospects could lead a de-facto opposition.
For Moscow, the commercial incentives are strong. Putin is reluctant to alter his economic development plans on the basis of what he sees as unproven allegations. The Kremlin is concerned that Chinese oil companies are profiting from the diplomatic crisis by clinching deals in Iran. According to a January report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, China's Sinopec has secured 51 percent of Iran's Yadavaran oil-field project. And in September, another Chinese oil major took over operations at Masjid-e Suleiman. Meanwhile, the European offer to supply Tehran with nuclear fuels and civilian technology is a potential slap in the face for Putin.
Still, business daily Kommersant reminded its readers Saturday that Iran could be nuclear-enabled within six months. It said Kremlin officials had failed to mention that U.S. President George W. Bush is not ruling out pre-emptive attacks against Bushehr. A military showdown could put Russian trade policies at risk. In Moscow, a consensus among analysts holds that Bush's threats are not credible.
"Iran is not Iraq. There is no possible way the U.S. can carry out the same type of campaign it launched against Saddam Hussein in Iraq," says Gleb Pavlovksy, a Kremlin-connected political strategist. "Anyway, business and diplomacy don't necessarily cancel each other out," he says.
The war on terrorism can distract from other conflicts of interest between Russia and the United States. But when news hit trading floors last Wednesday that an explosion had taken place near Bushehr, oil prices moved up sharply. There is nothing like oil prices to correct market distractions. Izvestia revealed the next day that Russian specialists on the ground had not been harmed since the blast was detected 100 kilometers away from the reactor. But a source at Atomstroiexport, the Russian outfit in charge of Bushehr, said security measures had been heightened.
Moscow is not only investing in Iran's atomic market, but also in exports of military equipment. Much of it is weaponry designed in the 1970s. When Putin came to power in 1999, he committed to double-tracking the economy.
"The idea was that exports of oil and gas would help rebuild the high-tech sector. Preserving the legacy of the Soviet Union's space research, for example, was important to Putin's team," says Aleksei Bogaturov of Russia's Academy of Sciences.
Deemed of strategic national interest, the Kremlin co-financed the construction of long-range Ilyushin aircraft equipped with U.S.-built engines. But the short-term vision of Russian bureaucrats, coupled with nostalgia for a lost sphere of influence, is getting in the way.
Russia is struggling to find its strategic fit in the Middle East. One way is by opening new export markets. But to avoid upsetting the regional balance, it will have to tread lightly. This past week, Moscow had to qualify the sale of Strelets surface-to-air missile systems to Syria. A controversy erupted in January over the possible sale of rocket propellers. At the time, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov denied talks over "illicit" weapons. During his three-day visit to Russia, Syrian President Bashar Assad also denied arms deals. But just last week, Ivanov's office resorted to a rhetorical device to explain that it was going ahead with sales to Syria. The Strelets is for defensive purposes only, an official source claimed. It cannot be detached from armored vehicles and is therefore unlikely to land in terrorist hands.
Linguistic devices may not work after the assassination of Lebanese former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Any tracks leading to a Syrian role in the Beirut bombing will isolate Damascus.
"I assume this issue will be raised in Bratislava [on Feb. 24] to avoid additional irritants in the Bush-Putin partnership," says Andrei Kortunov, president of the New Eurasia Foundation in Moscow. Kortunov thinks Putin is responding to the pressure of arms exporters linked to the Defense Ministry.
"Putin will be as opportunistic as he is allowed to be. It all depends on U.S. persistence and whether Bush can convince the Europeans to hold the line," says Kortunov.
The delivery of anti-aircraft systems to Syria does not directly violate UN conventions. But if Putin is unable to calibrate his policies, he may have to alter his portfolio and forsake Iran.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=3&article_ID=12884© 2005 The Daily Star
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